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BTC 30D Implied Volatility Compression
Will BTC 30D IV settle below 45%?
Expiry
SEP 25 · 08:00 UTC
remaining
Reference
BTC DVOL
Deribit
Current
38.00%
Target <45%
24H Δ
-0.57%
Updated 08:00 UTC
Reference value
Recent historyOutcomes
Model-implied- BELOW 45%98%
- ABOVE 45%2%
Probabilities come from a diffusion model fitted to the metric's recent history, not from an order book. See Transparency for the methodology.
Structure
- Product
- Volatility
- Asset
- BTC
- Condition
- <45%
- Expiry rule
- Weekly · Friday 08:00 UTC
- Source
- Deribit DVOL index close at expiry (30-day forward implied volatility, annualised %)
About this market
A compression market: it asks whether BTC volatility expectations will fall below a defined level by the weekly expiry. It allows a participant to express the view that uncertainty is being priced out of the market.
Reference values are read live from Deribit. Settlement contracts are not yet deployed, so positions cannot be opened and no funds are held.